Chapter 5: The South China Sea and the Maritime Battlefield — Sabah on the Global Fire Line

“If land is where power is contested, the seas are where power is decided.”

Modern warfare no longer waits for rifles to fire across borders. It begins from the seabed, in the airspace above, and through invisible cyber attacks. Among all strategic zones in the world today, the South China Sea is the hottest. Not because of tropical heat, but due to rising military tensions that are nearing a breaking point.

Sabah, facing directly into this sea, sits at the crossroads between China’s maritime strength and the presence of the American and NATO armadas. Should a large-scale naval conflict erupt, Sabah will not be a spectator. It will be on the front line.

The Maritime Encirclement of China

The United States and its allies have not waited to be attacked. For over two decades, they have carefully constructed a maritime encirclement around China — not with stone walls, but with naval bases, joint exercises, and bilateral security agreements.

In Japan, the U.S. Navy's Yokosuka base houses the Seventh Fleet, the only active American fleet stationed outside U.S. territory. From there, nuclear aircraft carriers, cruisers, and submarines can reach Taiwan within 48 hours. It acts as the eyes and arms for southern Japan and northern Philippines maritime control.

In South Korea, the Busan port has been upgraded to accommodate the world's largest warships. This makes it a key maritime support point in any Yellow Sea or Korean Peninsula conflict. U.S.-Korean defense ties enable flexible naval access across Northeast Asia.

In the heart of the Pacific Ocean, Guam serves as a launch pad for long-range missile systems and hosts the Andersen Air Force Base. From there, B-52 and B-1 bombers can quickly reach any point in East Asia, while supporting nuclear submarine operations.

More significant is America's renewed influence in the Philippines, a country just across from Sabah. Under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the U.S. has access to at least nine military sites, including those near the South China Sea and Palawan. This gives the U.S. major leverage to respond to Chinese maneuvers in contested waters.

Singapore, though not home to a permanent base, regularly welcomes American aircraft carriers at Changi Naval Base for maintenance and joint drills. Its location at the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula provides direct access to the Strait of Malacca and South China Sea, the busiest maritime trade route in the world.

In Australia, Darwin Port now hosts rotational deployments of U.S. Marines. It's also being developed to accommodate anti-submarine systems and long-range radar as part of AUKUS initiatives aimed at containing China's maritime influence.

Each of these points is not randomly placed. They form a strategic arc that loops from northern Japan to eastern Australia, hugging China's east and south coasts like a slow-tightening noose. This is not just geographic encirclement. It is a comprehensive blockade of access, radar, logistics, and opposition forces, designed to restrict China's freedom of movement.

And when one examines the map closely, the only open gap in this chain lies between the Sulu and Celebes Seas — directly facing Sabah. It is no surprise that global powers are focusing on this region. If Sabah can be controlled or compromised, the encirclement becomes complete. And when encirclement is complete, history shows that the next step is often an eruption.

Sabah in the Naval Ring

Sabah is not just one of Malaysia’s federated states. On global military and geopolitical maps, it is the final link capable of completing the maritime strategy ring of the United States around China. It sits between America’s key military bases in the Philippines and deep-sea naval operations in the South China Sea, making it the most valuable — and at the same time, the most exposed — connecting point.

Imagine a strategic arc stretching from Subic Bay in the Philippines to the US naval base in Guam, then through the Makassar Strait to the Indian Ocean. Sabah lies directly at the intersection of these maritime axes. From a naval and intelligence standpoint, anyone who controls Sabah will be able to:

• Cut down the response time to Spratly and the Sulu Sea to just a few hours, enabling immediate action in the most active contested zone between China and ASEAN nations.

• Establish Sabah as a forward logistics hub for submarine operations, transport aircraft, and tactical military missions. It is closer than Guam, more stable than Palawan, and more discreet than Changi.

• Launch medium-range surveillance aircraft and attack jets capable of high-speed patrols and interception, while also being able to return to base quickly without requiring mid-air refuelling.

Geographically, Sabah grants simultaneous access to three high-tension zones:

• Mischief Reef, China's major stronghold in the Spratly Islands, reinforced with surface-to-air missiles.

• Fiery Cross Reef, a launch site for Chinese fighter jets and long-range maritime radar systems.

• Scarborough Shoal, a critical location claimed by both the Philippines and China, frequently hosting confrontations between coast guards.

These three are the most volatile locations on Asia’s maritime map. For medium-range missiles and tactical jets, Sabah is the optimal launch point with a 1,500-kilometre radius — sufficient for either control or provocation.

Moreover, Sabah possesses essential infrastructure advantages:

• Deep-sea ports in Sepanggar and Lahad Datu.

• Military airfields ready for upgrades.

• Political stability compared to southern Philippines or the Natuna Sea.

If any major power builds a naval base in Sabah, even under the banner of aid, cooperation, or development, they will not only tighten their grip over this region, but also complete the encirclement of China from the southwest. For Beijing, this would be no different from placing an enemy’s weapons at their doorstep.

In modern warfare, naval dominance is no longer about fleet size. It is about where bases are placed and how quickly they can deploy. Sabah checks all the boxes, making it not only priceless, but also highly vulnerable to being the first target in a war that has not yet been declared.

Submarine Cables and the War of Information

In today’s digital era, many assume that information flows freely through clouds and satellites. But the truth is, over 90 percent of global communication — including internet data, financial transactions, military commands, and strategic intelligence — moves through fiber optic cables lying silently on the ocean floor.

Sabah, positioned between the Sulu Sea and the South China Sea, sits along some of the most critical cable routes in the Asia-Pacific.

Cables such as SEA-ME-WE 3, linking Southeast Asia to the Middle East and Europe, pass close by. The Asia-America Gateway (AAG) connects major hubs like Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, and Malaysia directly to the United States. The Pacific Light Cable Network (PLCN) and SEA-US follow nearby paths, making the surrounding seas one of the densest clusters of undersea communication lines.

These cables are not protected from physical sabotage or geopolitical disruption. Despite international protections, they are often subject to covert surveillance or deliberate testing by major powers — a way to either monitor signal traffic or prepare for more serious disruptions.

Disabling just one major cable can lead to:

• Frozen financial transactions and blocked trade flows.

• Cut-off communications between governments and militaries.

• Disrupted banking systems and stock exchanges.

• Widespread public panic due to loss of access to digital infrastructure.

Sabotage does not require warships or missile strikes. A small vessel with a remotely operated underwater vehicle can dive deep and disable a cable with precision — and no one may know who did it.

Sabah’s proximity to these strategic chokepoints puts it in a position of extreme vulnerability. Any disruption here would not just affect Malaysia, but could fracture connectivity across the region, weakening economies and exposing governments.

This is modern warfare without declaration. It starts not with a bang, but with silence.

First Strike Strategy — Whoever Strikes First, Wins

In modern military history, one principle has never changed — the first strike determines the balance of power. Whoever attacks first, with precision and speed, will dictate the direction of victory or at least weaken the enemy before they can retaliate.

Japan proved this principle when it launched a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. Within just a few hours, nearly the entire US Pacific Fleet was crippled. Although Japan eventually lost the war, the initial advantage allowed them to advance rapidly across Southeast Asia with minimal resistance. The goal was not only tactical but also psychological — to shock the enemy and break their spirit to fight.

The United States has also applied this principle in modern conflicts. When they struck Libya in 1986, US warships in the Mediterranean launched Tomahawk missiles at key Libyan targets, including communication centres and air force infrastructure, in response to alleged terrorist activities. Libya had not declared war on the US, yet the operation showed how pre-emptive strikes are used as decisive deterrents.

Israel demonstrated the same doctrine during the Six-Day War. They launched a surprise airstrike on the airbases of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. In just six hours, the majority of the Arab air forces were destroyed while still on the ground. The strike not only gave Israel complete air superiority but also proved that the first strike could win a war before it officially begins.

Today, China is actively developing and refining its military doctrine based on the same principle. During several large-scale military exercises, China simulated early strikes on foreign bases that show signs of becoming platforms for foreign military operations. These include hypersonic missiles, wide-scale cyberattacks, and GPS jamming as part of a tactical manual — not necessarily to initiate open war, but to neutralise threats before they escalate.

In this context, Sabah is no longer just a Malaysian state in the East. It is a visible signal point under global observation. If Sabah begins to show signs of infrastructure transformation that resembles a forward operating base — even if under the name of humanitarian logistics, strategic corridors, or joint defence cooperation — it will immediately be added to China's preventive strike list.

China will not wait for a formal declaration of war. They only need a clear signal that Sabah is being used as a platform for foreign forces. And based on historical precedents, their response will not come in the form of diplomacy. It will come in the form of precision-guided missiles targeting:

• Deep-sea ports that could serve as berths for logistics vessels or aircraft carriers. These ports can be rapidly upgraded to support amphibious ships, military supplies, or missile storage. Sepanggar and Lahad Datu are prime candidates due to their location and depth, making them ideal for deep-sea naval operations.

• Radar stations and communication antennas that could coordinate joint surveillance and intelligence. Installed on high ground along Sabah’s eastern coast, these systems could track submarines, warships, and fighter jets — and potentially link into regional NATO defence networks.

• Air and data control centres capable of monitoring South China Sea movements. With access to submarine cable lines, Sabah could become a data processing and coordination hub for drone missions, cyber warfare, and missile command — turning the state into a nerve centre of foreign military intelligence.

• Strategic airfields that can be upgraded into operational bases. Facilities like Kota Kinabalu International Airport or existing military strips can be transformed into bases for bombers, reconnaissance aircraft, or refuelling operations — allowing foreign forces to project power over the Spratlys, Taiwan, and southern Philippines with minimal logistical constraints.

This strategy does not involve massive warfare. It only takes a surgical strike — a precise and sharp attack to send a clear message: Sabah is not territory to be stepped on without consequence.

And when this happens, no one will be prepared. Because in the first strike doctrine, time is no longer an ally. It is a weapon.

War Without Declaration: Control the Sea, Control the World

In the era of modern warfare, formal declarations are no longer required. Enemies no longer arrive waving flags with marching soldiers. They come through signal waves, covert software, and obscure devices that evade radar. In a world overly dependent on technology, controlling the sea is no longer just about physical access — it means controlling the digital lifeline of a nation.

Jamming GPS and military communications has become the first strike in nearly every major conflict over the past decade. When military signal systems are disrupted, missile guidance, drone flight paths, submarine tracking, and fighter jet coordination all descend into chaos. In an instant, combat operations collapse. Maritime zones like the waters around Sabah — a major route for ships and aircraft — can be turned into launch points for electromagnetic warfare, disrupting not only Malaysia’s defence systems but also the broader networks of neighbouring countries.

Underwater drones or unmanned aquatic vehicles, silently operating below the surface, are the new face of invisible naval warfare. These remotely operated vehicles can dive hundreds of metres deep, slip into strategic maritime zones, and gather sonar data, submarine activity, and the location of undersea communication cables. In many cases, they can remain dormant for months — waiting for a signal to strike, sabotage, or disable data lines — all without being detected. If Sabah becomes a covert platform for these operations, whoever controls it will hold the upper hand across the South China Sea.

Satellites are no longer limited to weather and mapping. Modern military satellites can manipulate enemy GPS coordinates, intercept communications, and track every movement on land and sea with incredible precision. And every satellite needs a terrestrial link — whether for data transmission, monitoring, or relay support. Locations like Sabah, situated near the equator, are ideal for stable and broad orbital coverage. This makes it a prime target for use as a silent ground node for satellite warfare.

Unmanned naval vehicles, or autonomous ships, are now used by major powers in sea trials. These vessels require no human crew. They can move quietly, evade detection, and be equipped with missiles and torpedoes. They are controlled remotely or powered by algorithms. In actual combat, these ships will infiltrate, strike, and disrupt maritime logistics — all without clear human involvement. Sabah, with its long coastlines and vast waters, is highly vulnerable to being used as a launch site or waystation for such autonomous operations.

This is the shape of modern war. It makes no noise, does not shake the ground, and will not make the headlines — until it is far too late.

Sabah may seem like a remote border state. But through strategic eyes, it is a silent gem that could determine victory or defeat in global conflict. If Malaysia fails to secure, defend, and actively control Sabah, foreign powers will exploit it — not through open invasion, but through high-tech covert operations the public may never even notice.

And by the time we realise it, the war might have already begun. Not with us firing the first shot — but with us absorbing the consequences.

Conclusion of Chapter 5: When the Sea Becomes the Gate to Hell

The world is moving closer to a large-scale naval war — not to control water, but because the sea has become the main artery of data, energy, and food.

And Sabah, with all its geostrategic advantages, now stands at the centre of that battlefield.

“When the enemy controls the land, you can still retreat to the sea. But when the enemy controls the sea, there is nowhere left to run.” (A classic saying by a Ming Dynasty naval commander)

If we are not prepared, Sabah will become a foreign base that invites calamity — or worse, become its first target. And when the first missile is launched, it may not come from a fighter jet or a visible battleship. It might rise from a submarine far below the surface, or from an island we never realised had been militarised. We will only know it happened when everything has already collapsed.

The sea does not just connect nations. It holds the power to isolate or unite, to sustain or to starve. Whoever controls the sea controls the rhythm of civilisation. And if that sea — especially the South China Sea — is turned into a battlefield, then Sabah will not be a bystander. It will be caught in the crossfire, with no time left to choose a side.

The real question is not whether war will come. The real question is whether we see it coming — and whether we are willing to act before the waves turn red.